By The National Weather Service
Numerical weather models are beginning to converge on a solution regarding a winter system for this weekend. It appears at this time low pressure will track from south texas saturday night to the louisiana gulf coast sunday and the florida panhandle sunday night.
Moisture is expected to surge northward sunday and spread precipitation from south to north across the midsouth beginning sunday afternoon.
The precipitation shield will continue pushing north into sunday evening…affecting much of the region.
High pressure over the great lakes and ohio valley will keep cold air in place throughout the weekend… so most of the precipitation should remain snow. There is a small chance of some sleet mixing with the snow across northern mississippi sunday afternoon as slightly warmer air aloft pushes north. Any sleet that falls initially will quickly turn to snow.
Given the tropical origin of this system in the east pacific and its ability to tap into additional gulf moisture… this system will have a lot of moisture to work with. In addition… strong dynamics present within the storm will allow for the formation of embedded heavy snow bands.
Very early estimates of snowfall accumulations appear to be in the 2 to 5 inch range toward the Kentucky/Missouri borders to as much as 5 to 8 inches along and south of I-40. This snowfall forecast is heavily dependent on the amount of lift and moisture this system will produce… and is subject to change.
Due to the freshly fallen snow…temperatures will remain quite cold into much of next week. This will make clearing roadways and sidewalks difficult with the slush or wet snow refreezing. Due to the inability to sufficiently clean roadways in this part of the country when compared to northern states… travel may remain difficult well into next week.
All interests across the midsouth should stay updated to the latest forecasts and future watches and warnings. This system has the potential to significantly impact commerce and society.