Now that the Obama administration has won its breakthrough first-step nuclear deal with Iran, officials are planning strategy for the decisive second round that over the next six months will seek a broader and tougher comprehensive agreement.
This “end state” negotiation, as officials describe it, promises to be more difficult because the U.S. and its negotiating partners will seek to dismantle parts of the Iranian program, rather than simply freeze them. Another complication is that negotiators will be fending off even more brickbats from hard-liners in Israel, the U.S. Congress and Tehran. If the interim deal was reached largely in secret, through a back channel provided by Oman, this one will have to be negotiated in the diplomatic equivalent of a circus ring, with hoots and catcalls from bystanders.
As administration strategists seek a comprehensive deal, they have several priorities. All will be harder to negotiate than was the limited six-month freeze on the Iranian program agreed last weekend. Given the arduous bargaining ahead, the U.S. will need the leverage of the sanctions still in place after release of $7 billion in frozen Iranian assets – and the threat of more sanctions if negotiations break down.
The negotiators’ agenda:
• First, the U.S. wants no heavy-water reactor at Arak, rather than just a halt in supplies for it.
• Second, the U.S. will press Iran to dismantle a substantial number of its roughly 19,000 centrifuges, perhaps more than half.
• Third, the U.S. will urge closure of Iran’s enrichment facility at Fordow, dug into a hillside near Qom, arguing that this fortified location isn’t consistent with the civilian effort that Iran insists is its only goal.
• Fourth, the U.S. will aggressively pursue Iran’s commitment in the interim deal to inspection of possible weaponization and military activities at Parchin and other bases.
• Finally, the U.S. will have to craft with its negotiating partners a structure for the next round of talks. A “joint commission” of experts will supervise compliance with the six-month interim agreement. Meanwhile, the comprehensive negotiations will begin with the so-called P5+1 group, which includes the U.S., Russia, China, Britain and France, plus Germany. But it remains to be seen whether the U.S. will also have a parallel structure for secret bilateral talks with the Iranians.
Officials don’t see any sign yet that Iranian President Hassan Rouhani or Foreign Minister Javad Zarif wants to expand negotiations beyond the nuclear file to include regional issues, such as the sectarian fighting in Syria, Iraq, Bahrain and Lebanon. U.S. analysts believe this regional agenda is controlled not by Rouhani, but by Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.
As Washington pushes ahead with engagement of Tehran, U.S. officials understand they must reassure their traditional Sunni Arab allies that they haven’t tilted toward Shiite, Persian Iran. As part of this effort, Obama spoke Wednesday with Saudi King Abdullah, and more such contacts are planned.
A wild card in these negotiations is Israel. Obama has asked Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to take a breather from his clamorous criticism and send to Washington a team that can explore with U.S. officials a sound end-state strategy.
Getting to “yes” with Iran was difficult enough last weekend, but the truly hard part of these negotiations is just beginning.
David Ignatius’ email address is firstname.lastname@example.org.