By David Ignatius
As President Barack Obama was feeling his way in foreign policy during his first months in office, he decided to cultivate a friendship with Turkey’s headstrong prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Over the past year, this investment in Turkey has begun to pay some big dividends – anchoring U.S. policy in a region that sometimes seems adrift.
Erdogan’s clout was on display this week as he hosted a meeting here of the World Economic Forum that celebrated the stability of the “Turkish model” of Muslim democracy amid the turmoil of the Arab Spring. One panel had the enraptured title “Turkey as a Source of Inspiration.”
In a speech Tuesday, Erdogan named Turkey’s achievements over the last decade he has been in power: Its economy has grown an average of 5.3 percent since 2002, the fastest rate of any OECD country; GDP has more than tripled, as have its foreign reserves; investment from abroad has increased more than 16 times.
Turkey’s ascendance in the region may seem obvious now, but it was less so in 2009 when Obama began working to build a special relationship. To an otherwise predictable European itinerary for his first overseas trip in April 2009, he added a stop in Ankara. What impressed the Turks wasn’t just that he spoke to their parliament, but that earlier in Strasbourg he pushed for a greater role for Turkey in NATO, and in Prague argued for Turkish membership in the European Union.
“My prime minister sees a friend in President Obama,” says Egemen Bagis, the minister for European affairs and one of Erdogan’s closest political advisers. “The two can very candidly express their opinions. They might not always agree, but they feel confident enough to share positions.”
An example of the Obama-Erdogan channel was their meeting in March at the Asian summit in Seoul. The top item was Obama’s request that Erdogan convey a message to Iran’s supreme leader about U.S. interest in a nuclear agreement. In Seoul, Erdogan also promised to reopen a Greek Orthodox seminary on the island of Halki, granting a request Obama had made in 2009; Erdogan had earlier agreed to Obama’s request that Turkey permit services at an ancient Armenian church on Akdamar Island in Lake Van.
In playing the Turkey card, Obama has upset some powerful political constituencies at home.
But as the Arab Spring has darkened, the administration has been glad for its alliance with this prosperous Muslim democracy – which it can celebrate as a beacon for the neighborhood. Ahmet Davutoglu, Turkey’s ambitious foreign minister, argues that his country is a role model for Arabs because it shows that democracy brings dignity – not chaos or extremism.
Bagis puts it this way: “There are many Muslim leaders who can go to Egypt and pray in a mosque. And there are many Western leaders who can go talk about democracy. Erdogan did both.” For Turkey these days, that’s something of a trump card. But there’s a mutual dependence. It seems fair to say that no world leader has a greater stake in Obama’s re-election than the Turkish prime minister.
David Ignatius’ email address is firstname.lastname@example.org.