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Inside Ole Miss Sports



Predictions Anyone?
by parrishalford
 Inside Ole Miss Sports
Oct 27, 2011 | 974 views | 21 21 comments | 13 13 recommendations | email to a friend | print | permalink

Last Saturday's postgame exchange between Ole Miss coach Houston Nutt and Rivals reporter Neal McCready was a reminder that people take these prediction columns seriously.

Well, there aren't a lot of different scenarios left to predict for Ole Miss football right now. At the edge of November, you are what you are.

There can be marginal improvement at this time of year, and coaches believe they're getting better on the offensive line and at quarterback, where Randall Mackey is getting more and more snaps under his belt.

The overwhelming majority of improvement, however, takes place in the off-season and preseason through training, recruiting, development, possible position changes, etc.

As Bill Parcells once said, “You are what your record says you are.”

Some things the record doesn't say, like the amount of fight remaining in a team in the midst of a difficult season. There was fight in the Rebels last week. It's hard to predict fight, though, and sometimes you get one of those head-scratcher games like last year at Tennessee when the Rebels lost 52-14 or earlier this year at Vanderbilt, a 30-7 defeat.

I predict fight for the Rebels at Auburn.

The record speaks more clearly on other matters, however, like run defense. Ole Miss is giving up 222.86 yards a game on the ground. Only five major college football teams are allowing more.

Auburn comes in as the SEC's No. 4 rushing team at 183.25 yards a game. That's good. It's isn't Alabama good, but Auburn will have one of the league's top backs in sophomore Michael Dyer.

Last week Arkansas back Dennis Johnson proved you can be good, not outstanding, and still have an outstanding day against the Rebels.

By the numbers, the Rebels are also No. 16 in the nation in gaining yards at 268.71 yards a game. There is better chance for late improvement here. In fact, some of that improvement was shown in the first half against Arkansas, more than was shown by the run defense.

It appears that Brandon Bolden is healthier. Many times last week he and Jeff Scott were in the game at the same time. Mackey is becoming more experienced and settled, and most importantly, it looks like there's a confidence level developing for the offensive line.

Those things could add up to sustained drives against an Auburn defense that is also susceptible to the run.

The Rebels have been pretty good in pass defense. Auburn has struggled throwing the ball and has had a quarterback change. That may just mean that Auburn runs the ball more.

Ultimately the Parcells quote matters, and I've not seen enough from the Rebels' run defense to expect dramatic improvement there.

Prediction: Auburn 27, Ole Miss 20

Comments
(21)
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bornarebel
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October 27, 2011
I believe that we are getting better. The problem is everyone else is too. This is a winnable game but the difference in Auburn and Ole Miss is Auburn knows how to win. They have pulled out wins when they should have been beat. We seem to always find a way to lose. I'm hoping this week will be different. I'm gonna use PA's score but with wishful thinking.

Ole Miss - 27

Auburn - 20
mantachie
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October 27, 2011
we play 4 quarters and we win, it is coming and nutt may just pull it off, we win the egg bowl

La Tech we can beat, and Kentucky also

State is not the same team they were last year

If La Tech QB had been 18 rather than 17 with a few more games under his belt State would have one more loss!
gotohell-lsu
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October 27, 2011
We last beat Auburn two years ago, in Oxford. This game is a must win for going to the B word, and I'd trade that for an LSU upset. If HDN can turn this around, we have 2 of the top running backs already committed. We need defensive line and linebacker recruits for the future. I think we play our most complete game this weekend, maybe because of all the pressure on the coaches.
Flareb
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October 27, 2011
Auburn for some reason is worried about this game.Instability at qb will do that to a team and trust me we know. OM and Jordan Hare don't fare well together. I've got a hunch game will be close. Can Ole Miss make the plays, if so, Auburn can be had. Make freshmen qb play, if he does, he does, nobody expects us to win. All the pressure is on Auburn. Stop the run at all cost.
Archaeo
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October 27, 2011
I must be looking elsewhere to then because for every one time Scott actually gets to the outside for a good play he gets taken down for a loss or no gain 5 times. Granted mixing up the plays here and there gets the D guessing and big plays can happen but Scott has not impressed me one bit this year except for his returns. IF and thats a big if Bolden can stay healthy then yes the running game looks MUCH better. I still think last weeks early success was due to Arky having a bye week, but we will see this Saturday.

For some reason though I have a feeling that if Ole Miss is going to upset a team it might just be Auburn this week.
VAReb
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October 27, 2011
Good job, JB!
VAReb
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October 27, 2011
Agree 100 percent with you, Bleedredandblue. About the time I start to give Turfguy a pass, he comes up with one of those crazy comments! Bolden up the middle, Scott around the end! Of course, Auburn is going to be the same thing to us. Hope the run defense steps up.

Churn
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October 27, 2011
Ok VaReb, will give it a go. Johnny Rebs are a 12 point underdog accordin to USA Today, but cosiderin that they are just another left wing liberal news brainwasher as CNN. ABC. MSMBC, AND OTHERS.

i would say if the REBS play as they did against the HOGS, barring 3rd qt Ole Miss wins.

Ole MIss 35 Auburn 24.

GO REBES!!!!!! YOU DO STILL SOME SUPPORTER ON THIS BLOG. i see ole miss beating auburn Kentucky, Tenn, La Tech and MIss STATE. and bowlin we go!!!!!!!

JB
rebelrt
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October 27, 2011
Turfguy is a MSU fan first and foremost although he seems to be interested in both teams. MSU only has Kentucky and TN Martin as wins left in my opinion......they suck as well. The Egg Bowl will depend on who wants it the most this year.
bleedredandblue
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October 27, 2011
I don't think turfguy knows a whole lot about the game myself. The mis-direction worked perfectly well last week until bolden lost his lateral movement and we weren't able to run it up the middle which then led to the hogs only having to worry about taking away the speed sweeps. When they don't know if you're going to run it up the middle, take it to the outside or pa pass it's hard to defend. If Brandon Bolden can stay healthy and keep his lateral movement we will move the ball. Seems like you've been watching the game and just don't know much about it. There were blowing the d-line off the ball for most of the game. Jeff Scott can get the edge on Auburns lb's but leaning on him to run it up the gut is asking a lil much. He isn't Dexter by no means.
bleedredandblue
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October 27, 2011
I will say this. If HDN can some how some way get us a win against the mullet boys and we end up with a bowl bid he will have earned his keep. This team has tremendous talent. He will have to recruit a good H.S. qb and some really good running backs along with some good defensive guys this year also. Channing Ward is one of them. This team has a lot of fight in it. We have the capability to be very very stout on offense and in the secondary for years to come. You can see flashes of it now. The o-line is coming on really nicely. It won't hurt to lose Bradley Sowell i don't believe next year either. Anyone can fill those shoes. The def front will have to get better quick. I've kinda got off track of where i was heading with this. But if Nutt can get to six wins and a bowl I think he is the right fit for us. I do believe that his recruiting is great but I think that he's looking at the now picture other than the future. He's got to get great H.S. players. The juco's are to fill voids where you don't have depth. This is his 4th season here. We should have depth all over the field by now. Thats his downfall in recruiting. He can get some marquee players but establishing depth doesn't just happen over night out of nothing. If he doesn't get us to a bowl and beat the barking mullets he is gone though. This season has been hard to bare for the rebel faithful. The BYU game, Vandy game, Bama game. We aren't use to getting beat like this. But I do see determination by these kids, this team is full of youth and hanging in there fairly well. I believe he's doing a good job for what he's working with. The only problem is it's his fault that he's only got what he's got. Part of me wants him gone, part of me doesn't. I like his motivation. I think he's a good coach but at times I don't think he can build or manage a program that well. Whatever happens over the next 5 weeks with happen. I won't lose any sleep unless Boo-ne fires Nutt and is the one to make the hire. Lets go Rebs. WE're gonna beat the hell outta you.
turfguy
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October 27, 2011
Are you watching the same team that I am? I saw some improvement last week, but running away with the game? Bowl games? Knock them off the ball? Scott to the outside? C'mon man, Scott cannot beat Auby's LB's to the outside. The only way to do damage to Auby's D, is to pass across the middle 10 to 15 yards deep. If Mackey can do this, then it will be close. Kentucky is the only chance to get a win, unless La Tech loses their QB.
rebelchris
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October 27, 2011
my heart always wants to predict a win for ole miss but what has ole miss accomplished this yr or even over the last 20 yrs that would say ole miss will beat auburn? ole miss has very few wins against auburn in recent history, and now we have one of the worst teams in recent history. ole miss losses by 10. 21-31

VAReb
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October 27, 2011
Come on, JB, give us your score!!

If Bolden is healthy and if Coach Nutt and Lee are smart enough to run Scott outside, Bolden inside, and Braswell on some sweeps, we win. Regardless, my score: Rebs 31 War Eagles 24
DosChiChis
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October 27, 2011
I too, agree, Ole Miss wins big this weekend. I think Nutt and the players have a lot to release on Auburn. I bet they come out and knock them off the ball. There is nothing HDN likes better than to silence his critics and say, I told you so. If we beat Auburn, Kentucky, and MSU, everyone keeps their job. As Nutt always says, "they always remember November." I know that is a little premature but if OM makes a move, it has to be now or next year.

OM 35

CHICFILA 24
Churn
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October 27, 2011
NO PREDICTIONS!!!!!

I see where PA is voting against the once again. so I let be for this week.

JB
bleedredandblue
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October 27, 2011
I still like our chances of making a bowl game. I said before the season started that I thought that we would have to win the first 3 games to be able to get to a bowl this season. I said that because I didn't think these young players could handle losing the first few games. They are fighters. They are talented, way more talented than I first imagined. They played very well last weekend for 3 quarters. I do believe that if we can hold on defense that we will be able to run away with this game. Load the box and stop the run. Our db's are capable of playing man. We let them play man and put a stop to dyer and we win this game. Brassell, Moncrief, Bolden, Scott and Mackey will have a big game this weekend. It will be a coming out party for the rebs. With this win we get to our 6 win plateau this season and play in a low end bowl. Nutt won't let them come out flat in the second half. 31-20 Rebs
turfguy
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October 27, 2011
Two of the worst tackling teams in the SEC. There should be plenty of long runs for td's in this one. Turnovers and missed field goals will prove costly. #2 will put on a show, but Auby's #5 will own the day.

The Fighting Faulkners 22

The Cheatin' Chizniks 30
parrishalford
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October 27, 2011
GTHLSU, that is a good point, and in making that statement I considered both of those teams. I think the 2008 team did get better in several areas, most notably defense and Jevan Snead. Improvement for the 2009 team, though, was more about handing the ball to Dexter McCluster. Improvement at this stage is not impossible, in my opinion, but it's difficult to make big gains.
gotohell-lsu
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October 27, 2011
Seems like we improved in October/November in both of our Cotton Bowl years. I hate to see PA pick Auburn, because he is usually right.

I think there is opportunity for improvement in our run game too. I hope Bolden and Mackey can both develop into consistent runners in the last 5 games. But being 115 out of 120 in the run game, we got to be able to improve there? Our corners have been so good this year compared to last, maybe we can let them play man while putting the LB's and safety up more to stop the runs.

Upset alert:

Defense steps up and pressure's the Auburn QB's into several mistakes.

AU - 21

UM - 27