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- PA

The quest for bowl eligibility takes the Rebels to Arkansas this week.

It isn't a must-win against the No. 21-ranked Razorbacks, but this is college football, and the noose tightens with each loss.

With a 3-3 record through the season's first half, there are three must-wins on the schedule – Louisiana-Lafayette, at Tennessee and Mississippi State. Those are the games the Rebels have to win to reach some level of postseason if they're not going to beat an “A” team this month or rival LSU the next.

It's the next two games, however, at Arkansas Saturday and at home against presently unbeaten Auburn, where the Rebels can recapture their season and make it something more than mediocre.

Back in August, when we make those air-tight predictions, I penciled this one in as a loss thinking the Rebels, with two new corners, would cover long enough or tight enough against Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett.

I still believe that to be true. There was improved coverage by the Rebels' secondary last week, but that was against a lesser quarterback and lesser receivers. At least it was improvement. Coverage was tight enough that the pressure got to Alabama quarterback Greg McElroy and dropped him for four sacks.

Ole Miss coach Houston Nutt called the Alabama game his team's best defensive performance to date.

Perhaps that's the beginning of a trend and not just an isolated incident.

The defense has struggled to find itself this season, rarely resembling that unit that achieved such a lofty status in the summer, the front seven being judged among the best in the SEC and the nation.

Tyrone Nix has been tinkering and trying to fix his defense. He made strides last week with the move of tackle LaMark Armour out to defensive end in place of under-achieving junior college transfer Wayne Dorsey.

Again, the key here is that the Rebels had played above average defense for one game. So the question becomes, is that enough to give you faith in the prediction process? For some it might be. It isn't for me, but while the Rebels have had their problems defensively, so have the Razorbacks, and that's what keeps the intrigue in this game.

Arkansas' defense has been decent against the pass, bad against the run. Sometimes good pass coverage is a sign that teams don't need to pass against you, because they are running with such success.

While the Razorbacks have struggled against the run, they've really struggled with running quarterbacks.

Most everyone has struggled with Auburn's Cam Newton, but Newton trashed the Razorbacks with 188 yards and three touchdowns.

Arkansas had trouble with Texas A&M's Jerrod Johnson the week before. The Aggies didn't have as many called QB runs, but Johnson had 52 yards on six carries before minus yardage from two sacks was figured in. Even then he averaged 5 yards per rush.

Ole Miss quarterback Jeremiah Masoli says he doesn't necessarily expect to run more against the Hogs than in any other game, that he'll take what the defense gives.

The fact is Masoli is a runner, and he's an aggressive player who will take what the defense gives and even force the issue. Then there's the matter of the no-huddle offense the Rebels showed for the first time last week against Alabama.

The signs point to Masoli's feet being a big part of the plan for Ole Miss, a matchup I think will favor the Rebels.

It doesn't hurt the Rebels' cause that Arkansas lost an historic shootout last week and that Mallett got banged around. It's enough to allow doubt to creep in.

Then throw in the fact that if Arkansas loses it drops to 1-3 in the SEC in what was supposed to be its breakout season.

And to top it all off the loss would be to its former coach, Nutt – again – who is reviled by many in the state.

The combination of all that is enough to amp up the pressure a few watts.

Ultimately, the game will be less about karma and more about players making plays, and Arkansas will make more of them.

Prediction: Arkansas 28, Ole Miss 27