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FRIDA GHITIS: Decision time nears on Iran, and US is in the picture
by Frida Ghitis
Nov 15, 2011 | 563 views | 1 1 comments | 3 3 recommendations | email to a friend | print
With each report from the United Nations nuclear agency, the choices the world faces regarding Iran's nuclear program become more stark.

The most recent one essentially confirmed that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons. The International Atomic Energy Agency, not known for using alarmist tones, describes Tehran's activities developing nuclear triggers for atomic weapons, advanced research on warheads that can be delivered by medium range missiles, computer modeling of nuclear explosions, and other efforts that have nothing to do with producing nuclear energy. Then again, who actually believed Iran's claims - still continuing - that this is all about producing electricity?

So, now what?

A nuclear Iran would transform the Middle East. It would spark an arms race, with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates all likely to build atomic weapons.

All discussions about Iran happen with an eye towards Israel. After all, Iran has spent decades arming the groups that regularly attack Israel.

Given the rhetoric from Iran, and the responses it has elicited in Israel, the fear in many corners is not just what Iran would do to Israel, but what Israel might do pre-emptively to Iran.

The most intense of all the discussions on the subject rages in Israel itself.

Some leading Israeli security experts argue it would be catastrophic for Israel to attack Iran. Others say it would be suicidal not to.

Israeli leaders have urged the international community, not to bomb Iran, but to impose "crippling" sanctions that will persuade it to change course.

But this is not just about Israel.

A few days ago, Jeffrey Goldberg of the Atlantic Monthly argued that President Obama may make the decision to take out Iran's nuclear installations, saying Obama has powerful reasons for wanting to put an end to the controversial atomic program. And he wasn't talking about wanting to win the next election.

Allowing Tehran to win this contest over nuclear weapons, Goldberg wrote, would mark a major defeat for the U.S. in a three-decades-old battle over influence in the Middle East

An American operation, argues Goldberg, would enjoy strong support from Washington's allies in the region, Israel, Turkey, and the nations of the Gulf - Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE.

Then, unavoidably, there is Israel. Goldberg says Obama doesn't want to be the president that is remembered for failing to guarantee Israel's survival.

Soon after the IAEA report was released, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared Tehran would not move back the nuclear program "even a needle's width."

No reasonable person hopes for a war. The only good outcome can come if sanctions, this time including committed participation from China, exert the pressure needed to bring a change of course in Tehran. It's a long shot, and the clock is running out.

Frida Ghitis writes about global affairs for The Miami Herald. Readers may send her email at fjghitisgmail.com.
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